Local Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political

Accountabilities:: Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts based strictly on the evidence available at a specified cutoff date, without relying on hindsight or subsequent developments. Analyze current or upcoming U.S. Senate, gubernatorial, and statewide contests in states where you have substantial local or regional expertise. Assess polling data, electoral dynamics, win probabilities, and market-implied odds, documenting the reasoning and assumptions behind each judgment. Explain the causal mechanisms through which political developments, election events, or changes in electoral expectations could affect political and market outcomes. Apply strong polling literacy and structured analytical reasoning to evaluate evolving political situations and competing evidence. Review AI-generated political analyses and grade their quality, accuracy, reasoning, and usefulness against your own professional standards. Provide clear, structured documentation of analytical judgments so that the reasoning can be evaluated and used in AI research and model-development workflows. Maintain strict point-in-time discipline by avoiding hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information. Complete project-based assignments independently while maintaining consistent analytical quality and professional standards. Requirements Typically 8+ years of direct professional experience in political analysis, forecasting, polling, political risk, or a closely related field, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent expertise. Hands-on experience covering current, upcoming, or recent U.S. political races within a specific state or regional electorate. Strong on-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, candidates, political environment, and relevant electoral dynamics in the state or states covered. Relevant backgrounds may include university political science or survey research, state or regional polling, state-level campaign or party analytics, political-risk analysis, decision desks, or race-rating organizations with state-specific coverage. Demonstrated experience making live judgments about polling, probabilities, electoral outcomes, or odds rather than relying primarily on retrospective political commentary. Strong understanding of polling methodology, electoral data, probabilistic reasoning, and causal event analysis. Ability to distinguish evidence available at a given point in time from information that emerged later and to construct analysis without hindsight. Strong written communication skills, with the ability to clearly explain analytical reasoning, assumptions, evidence, and causal mechanisms. Analytical rigor, intellectual discipline, attention to detail, and ability to work independently on complex research assignments. National political forecasting or political-risk experience is welcome when accompanied by deep knowledge of a specific U.S. state. Professional fluency in English. Profiles focused primarily on international politics, geopolitics, country risk, communications, journalism, or purely theoretical academic research without direct U.S. race experience are not aligned with the role. Benefits Compensation of $150–$250 USD per hour . Fully remote independent-contractor engagement. Flexible schedule, allowing work to be completed on your own schedule. Weekly payments through Stripe or Wise based on services rendered. Opportunity to contribute specialized political expertise to projects focused on evaluating and improving AI-generated analysis. Work involving elections, polling, forecasting, political risk, and real-time analytical reasoning. Opportunity to review and assess AI-generated research against professional subject-matter standards. Collaboration with researchers and professionals working on advanced AI systems. Project durations may be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on project needs and performance. Referral opportunity offering up to $1,000 per successful referral , subject to applicable limits and terms. Please note that H1-B and STEM OPT candidates are not supported for this engagement. Equal-opportunity environment with reasonable accommodations available upon request.